Photo : AP Photo/ Peter Dejong
04 July 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #560
War in Ukraine: Day 495
By Sreeja JS
War on the Ground
On 02 July, Ukrinform reported on the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southern and northern flanks in Bakhmut. Serhiy Cherevaty, Ukraine's Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson stated that there is no intense urban warfare in Bakhmut except for a few sniper groups and other units active there. Cherevaty also noted that Russian forces still retain their combat capability and ability to attack the Ukrainian positions.
On 02 July, Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, commander of the Ukrainian fleet in an interview with armyinform.com.ua updated on the Navy's efforts against the Russian invasion. He said that despite the air and naval superiority of Russian forces, the Ukrainian fleet constantly moved forward by integrating advanced missile weaponry and air defence systems, mainly from the Western powers. According to Neizhpapa, Russian forces continue to have air superiority over the Black Sea and Ukraine needs the F-16 fighters "not only for successful operations on land but also at sea."
On 02 July, Hanna Maliar, Deputy Defence Minister of Ukraine noted on Telegram that Ukrainian forces are making progress in the southern part of Bakhmut, Berdyansk and Melitopol. She wrote that Russian forces are advancing in Avdiivskyi, Marinskyi, Lymanskyi, Bilogorivka, Serebryanka and Svativ.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 03 July, Sergei Shoigu, Russia's Defence Minister commented that the Wagner mutiny did not affect Russian forces in Ukraine. According to Deutsche Welle, he said: "The plans primarily failed because the personnel of the armed forces showed loyalty to their oath and military duty." It was the minister's first public statement since the aborted mutiny on 24 June.
On 03 July, Deutsche Welle wrote that Dmitry Medvedev (former Russian President and the current deputy head of the country's Security Council) in an article for Rossiyskaya Gazeta, argued that the conflict in Ukraine would be permanent as Kyiv would not be accepted into NATO. He also argued that Russia is not alone and has developed ties with countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
On 03 July, Alexander Novak, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister announced a voluntary oil cut of 500,000 barrels per day in August to maintain a balanced oil market. This follows previous production cuts in response to the Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine. According to The Moscow Times, Moscow has shifted energy exports from Europe to India and China since the invasion.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 02 July, Ukrinform reported on the arrival of German Leopard tanks in Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov, Defence Minister of Ukraine tweeted that dozens of Leopard tanks have come to Ukraine to show their strength and capability in combat. The report also noted Pedro Sanchez, Prime Minister of Spain's comment that Madrid would soon send additional four Leopard tanks, armoured personnel carriers and a mobile field hospital to Kyiv.
On 04 July, faz.net reported that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine thanked Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany for the powerful German anti-aircraft (Iris-T systems and Patriot air defence systems) help against Russian attacks. Scholz promised "continuous and unbreakable solidarity" with Kyiv and said would continue supporting in close coordination with international partners.
On 03 July, AP reported the opening of the International Center For The Prosecution Of The Crime of Aggression (ICPA) to hold Putin and other Russian leaders accountable for the alleged crimes committed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. According to rferl.org, Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President said: "The new international prosecution centre will play a key role in making sure that the perpetrators are brought to justice." The new centre opened in The Hague would consist of Prosecutors from Ukraine, the EU, the US and the International Criminal Court (ICC).
On 03 July, rfrel reported on Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO's top military chief's comment on the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Comparing it to the Allied D-Day landings in France in 1944, he said that the counteroffensive launched last month was "difficult" and not "an easy walkover."
References
"Defense forces going on the offensive on southern, northern flanks of Bakhmut," Ukrinform, 02 July 2023
"We must have such a fleet that will no longer allow the aggressor to even plan an attack on Ukraine - Oleksiy Neizhpapa," armyinform.com.ua, 02 July 2023
"Heavy battles are going on everywhere," Telegram, 02 July 2023
"Russia's Shoigu says Wagner mutiny didn't affect Ukraine invasion," Deutsche Welle, 03 July 2023
"Shoigu Praises Army 'Loyalty' During Mutiny," The Moscow Times, 03 July 2023
"Russia to Cut Oil Exports in August," The Moscow Times, 03 July 2023
"Reznikov: Leopard tanks to show that they are capable of in Ukraine," Ukrinform, 02 July 2023
"Selenskyj thanks Scholz and calls for more help," faz.net, 04 July 2023
"EU's Von Der Leyen Vows To Hold Putin, 'Henchmen' Responsible As Center Opens To Probe Alleged Russian Crimes Aganist Ukraine," rferl.org, 03 July 2023
"International center opens to help hold Russian leadership accountable for aggression in Ukraine," AP, 03 July 2023
"Ukrainian Counteroffensive Reports Small Gains Against Strong Resistance," rferl.org, 03 July 2023
IN BRIEF
By Prerana P and Sneha Surendran
FRANCE
The unrest experiences significat lull
On 03 July, The French unrest was followed by solidarity with local governments, who was attacked by the angry protesters. The rally, which held immense tensions saw significant silence. The Algerian origin teenager’s death prompted a nationwide unrest and was called “mobilization of citizens for a return to republican order.” Over 34 building and 300 vehicles were damaged overnight, and the authorities showed support worth tens of millions of euros to repair the loss. The fund received by the police officer, who is under investigation was USD 1.07 million, which is five times more than the fund provided for the victim’s family. The policemen were charged with voluntary manslaughter, creating false statements and was detained. (“France: Anti-violence rallies held as riot tensions ease,” Euronews, 03 July 2023)
GREECE
Greek MEPs take oath in Parliament
On 03 July, 300 lawmakers were sworn into the Greek Parliament. This follows the victory of the conservative New Democracy party in the 25 June elections. Now, the party holds 158 seats compared to the opposition Syriza party’s 48, thereby ensuring a majority in the Parliament. Three far-right parties and one far-left party secured the three per cent minimum votes for ensuring parliamentary seats. The right-wing Spartans who hold 12 parliamentary seats, and the Niki party which has 10 seats are the new entrants into the Parliament. The fringe right-wing party Elliniki Lysi which won 4.4 per cent of the votes has secured 12 seats in the assembly. (Elena Becatoros, “Greece’s new parliament sworn in following conservative party’s election victory,” Associated Press, 03 July 2023)
NORWAY
Foreign Minister calls on Guatemala to respect election results
On 03 July, Norway issued a statement regarding the election news updates from Guatemala. Anniken Huitfeldt, Foreign Minister, said: “Norway is concerned by the developments in Guatemala following last week’s elections. Like other international partners, we encourage the Guatemalan authorities to respect the popular vote and the democratic will of the Guatemalan people, as was freely and clearly expressed in the elections on 25 June.” The statement was released following the decision by the constitutional court of Guatemala to review the results of the first round of Presidential elections that was held on 25 June. The court announced this decision after an appeal by nine political parties that alleged unfairness in the election. (“Statement on the developments in Guatemala,’ Government.no, 03 July 2023)
SWIZERLAND
The Swiss government will enlarge the Ukraine’s education support
On 03 July, The Federal Council reported that the Switzerland government has extended aid to Ukraine schools after the country faced a severe blow due to Russian military aggression. Over thousands of schools across the country have been destroyed and teachers have fled the zones, disrupting the education sector of Ukraine. The Switzerland government has initiated the ‘Decentralisation for Improved Democratic Education’ (DECIDE) project, and has contributed CHF 5.5 million, along with the existing CHF 140 million aid plan, to rehabilitate 30 schools in the Chernihiv, Odesa and Poltava region. The schools hold strong partnership with SDC, which would further strengthen local public services, the education system and provides education for nearly 15,000 school children. The Swiss government has promised to provide technical and pedagogical support for online education for the displaced children. The project secures close cooperation with Ukrainian Ministry of Education and Science, the Ukrainian Ministry for Communities, and other Infrastructure Development and local authorities. (“Switzerland increases support for rehabilitation of Ukrainian schools,” The Federal Council, 03 July 2023)
ENVIRONMENT
Germany critisizes Poland over Oder river pollution
On 03 July, Poland was condemned by Germany for their failure to check the pollution of the Oder River that had resulted in the death of hundreds of fish. The Oder River runs along the borders of the two nations. Last summer, the death of fish in the river was attributed to the dumping of chemicals from the Polish side by both countries which led to the growth of deadly golden algae. Greenpeace had pointed to the coal mines in Poland for discharging wastewater into the river. Christopher Stolzenberg, a spokesperson for the German Environment Ministry, said: “There has been no reaction by the Polish side to limit the salt discharge.” He also warned of a repeat of fish dying in the coming summer. Meanwhile, Aleksander Brzozka, a spokesperson for Poland’s Climate and Environment Ministry said that his government was in contact with the German side and “exchange information on a current basis.” (“Germany alleges Poland hasn’t stopped pollution that led to fish die-off in Oder River,” Associated Press, 03 July 2023)
REGIONAL
The Far-right leaders blames the lenient migration policies
On 03 July, Politico reported that the Far-right politicians have rosed its demand towards EU over tightening its migration policy, after witnessing the civil unrest in France. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki used the French issue and has blasted Brussels, who had forced Poland to accept the migration pact. He tweeted: “These are the consequences of the policies of uncontrolled migration which we are being forced to adopt.” The Italian authorities called the issue, “a certification of the failure of uncontrolled migration,” and has urged the continent to stabilize the issue. The far-right has managed to achieve better support from the centre with regards to its migration and asylum policies. Spain’s far-right has secured victory in national election and the party leader Santiago Abascal has accused the acts of violence on the “radical Muslim.” He further stated that the homosexuals felt much protected under his rule, and has concluded that, “Europe cannot continue to accept immigrants from Muslim countries.” Further, most of the far-right leaders have reflected that the multicultural dreams of the left’s have become a nightmare for the citizens, and has highlighted the negative impact of migration being the direct threat to EU. (Aitor Hernandez- Morales, “Europe’s hard right seeks to capitalize on unrest in France,” Politico, 03 July 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
UK Prime Minister of Bahrain visits UK
On 03 July, Gov.UK reported on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s meeting with Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the Prime Minister of Bahrain at Downing Street. The leaders talked about the signing of the Strategic Investment and Collaboration Partnership between the UK and Bahrain. The partnership deal will bring an investment of GBP one billion to the UK, assist in economic diversification in Bahrain and increase cooperation in clean technology, business and manufacturing sectors between the two partners. The two leaders also held talks on the situation in Ukraine and Iran and emphasised the need to put up a united front. (“PM meeting with Prime Minister of Bahrain: 3 July 2023,” Gov.UK, 03 July 2023)
Two-day Mercosur summit to discuss EU trade deal
On 03 July, Euronews reported that the South American trade bloc Mercosur will begin a two-day summit in Argentina to discuss the relations of the EU with South America. The goal of the summit is to discuss the blocked EU-Mercosur trade deal that was theoretically achieved in 2019 but is yet to begin in practice. The major reason for the obstacle has been environmental concerns from the EU, especially over the Amazon forests. The EU has attached a “side letter” to the original agreement but this demand has been condemned by South American leaders. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silba, Brazil’s President, had remarked: "Strategic partners should have a relationship of mutual trust, not mistrust and sanctions." Mercosur is a regional bloc that includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay which accounts for 62 per cent of South America’s population. (Philip Andrew Churm, “South American trade bloc Mercosur holds summit for EU trade deal,” Euronews, 03 July 2023)
UK-Nigeria discusses on various improvement aspects
On 03 July, GOV.UK reported on the joint communique for the Migration, Justice and Home Affairs Dialogue which was held on 10 May 2023. Nigerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the United Kingdom Home Office reinforced on the relationship between the countries. The countries acknowledged the shared excellent cooperation and has expressed the necessity to improve on various sectors such as health workforce, information-sharing strategy, data-sharing agreement. The countries expressed their mutual gratitude and prevention of vulnerable crimes such as trafficking, illicit financial and commodities flow and gang crimes. UK’s joint work shared their desire on promoting security. The next talks would be held on 2023, which would involve upper authorities, ministries, departments and agencies from both the respective countries. (“Nigeria-UK Migration, Justice and Home Affairs Dialogue,” GOV.UK, 03 July 2023)